Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
